China will not follow precedents from the 1930s or the Cold War in its effort to secure global leadership.
The analogy is of course, exaggerated, but Europe in the 1930s confronted an opponent determined to reshape the international order where traditional diplomacy was ineffective. The pragmatic argument that the short-term pain of confrontation will be less than the long-term damage from failing to change China’s behavior is unpersuasive for many Americans, the same way (using an ancient analogy) people were unwilling to admit the need to confront authoritarian states in the 1930s. The deeply intertwined supply chains of both nations, developed when relations were better, make some in the United States hesitant to confront China. power is fated to decay, and this makes China both bolder in challenging us and less inclined to negotiate.Ĭhinese espionage is an unhappy policy problem-an opponent intent on challenging the United States and determined to steal technology but unresponsive to the traditional policy tools for managing espionage. This is a mistake-the stories of most nations that have chosen a president-for-life do not have happy endings, but many assume the U.S. The Chinese believe that they only have to wait to surpass the United States.
Chinese policymakers contrast the political turmoil in Washington with their tightly regimented politics and conclude that the Chinese model is superior. They will probably seek to avoid overt clashes, but the United States’ failure to win two wars while letting ships, aircraft, and weapons slide into decline has led more nationalistic Chinese to develop a healthy disrespect. In any case, the Chinese do not respect our military power. It is not a Cold War, so military power is not that helpful, and we have not developed the policies needed to respond to either China or Russia. This is a new kind of conflict short of armed force but still damaging. But our major opponents do not care about approaches, and this is not peacetime. These are tools designed for peacetime and depend on a shared concern for proper relations among states. However, the United States has run through the list with Russia with little effect. There is a menu of normal responses when an opponent’s spies are caught en flagrante, ranging from indictments and expelling diplomats to recalling ambassadors and imposing trade or financial sanctions. It is a strangely contorted communism, but it is sufficient to ensure that China’s leaders will not follow international rules unless bribed or compelled. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is the last surviving of the Leninist parties that rejected bourgeois norms. China blithely ignores the norms of international practice when it serves its interest to do so, such as in building artificial islands hundreds of miles from its coast, announcing that this makes the seas Chinese national waters, and when the Hague Court of Permanent Arbitration (set up in 1899 to peacefully settle international disputes) rules against them, simply dismissing the decision. semiconductor technology.Ĭhina does not like to see its spies indicted, but indictments are no longer enough.
These tactics have been used in many other industries-from solar power to high-speed trains-and prompted the recent ban on the Chinese company Fujian Jinhua for the likely theft of U.S. Stealing jet engine technology is a long-standing goal for the Chinese, part of a larger effort to use the stolen intellectual property, massive government subsidies, and heavy-handed trade tactics to launch a domestic airline industry to challenge Western companies. China, despite loud claims to the contrary in its government-controlled media, is still reliant on Western technology. The response most likely to be effective requires new partnerships with allies such as Germany, Japan, and Canada, something this Administration can find difficult to do.Ĭhinese espionage against the United States has reached unprecedented levels, greater than anything seen in the Cold War.The traditional remedies to manage espionage will not work in this battle.We are in a massive, undeclared espionage battle with China, by China’s choice.
#LLM PROGRAMS AND CHINESE ESPIONAGE SERIES#
The announcement that 10 Chinese intelligence officers have been indicted for espionage, the most recent in a series of actions, highlights three uncomfortable truths:
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